From 2020 to 2021, taxable wage bases increased by an average of 2.9%. During the height of the Great Recession (from 2008 to 2010), the average annual increase was 4.8%. Some states correlate annual taxable wage base adjustments to state trust fund balances.⁴ Over the past 15 years, taxable wage bases have increased by an average of 2.5% annually. Employers pay SUI tax on wages earned and paid to each employee within a calendar year up to a specified amount, known as the annual taxable wage base. The depletion of state trust funds can have negative implications not only to future SUI tax rates but also the amount of wages subject to those tax rates. The following graph illustrates net trust fund balances by state as of December 31, 2022.³ Net Trust Fund Balances by State Because of this, net trust fund balances did not reach the negative levels experienced during the Great Recession. Net trust fund balances were substantially higher pre-COVID than they were pre-Great Recession. As of the end of Q4 2022, net trust fund balances were positive $27.76 billion.³ Historical Net Trust Fund Balances By the end of Q1 2022, trust fund balances rebounded and were a net positive, for the first time after the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, particular attention should be paid to these balances as an indicator of where rates may be headed in 2023 and beyond.Īs depicted in the following graph, net trust fund balances (trust fund balance net of Title XII advances) were negative $39.46 billion at the end of Q1 2011, as a result of the Great Recession, compared to negative $27.12 billion at the end of Q1 2021, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., $12.34 billion more solvent). (b) As of March 31, 2021, the highest levels experienced as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Ī logical starting point for addressing the outlook for 2023 SUI tax rates is state unemployment trust fund balances, a primary factor in developing SUI tax rates. (a) As of March 31, 2011, the highest levels experienced as a result of the Great Recession. * Federal Title XII advance existed prior to COVID-19 crisis and continues to be subject to FUTA credit reductions. Other Jurisdictions: If California, Connecticut, and New York continue to have outstanding Title XII advances as of November 10, 2023, the jurisdictions will be subject to another 0.30% increase in the FUTA tax rate, from 0.90% in 2022 to 1.20% in 2023. The BCR rate has been waived during all prior years. Virgin Islands: If the Virgin Islands continues to have an outstanding Title XII advance as of November 10, 2023, the jurisdiction will be subject to another 0.30% increase in the FUTA tax rate, from 4.20% in 2022 to 4.50% in 2023. These states did not have outstanding advances on January 1st of two consecutive years so should not be subject to a FUTA credit reduction for 2023. Because of this action, the state should not be subject to a FUTA credit reduction for calendar year 2023, as long as the state does not borrow again and have outstanding advances as of November 10, 2023.Ĭolorado and Pennsylvania: Colorado and Pennsylvania took Title XII advances during the first quarter of 2023. Illinois: On January 25, 2023, the state of Illinois repaid all outstanding Title XII advances. Because of this action, the state should not be subject to a FUTA credit reduction for calendar year 2023, as long as the state does not borrow again and have outstanding advances as of November 10, 2023. On January 25, 2023, the state of Illinois repaid all outstanding Title XII advances. Virgin Islands will have its FUTA tax credit reduced by 3.6% for an effective FUTA tax rate of 4.2%.) As such, the net FUTA tax rate for 2022. The net FUTA tax rate for 2022 will increase by 50% from 0.60% to 0.90% (the U.S. As such, these jurisdictions will be subject to a FUTA credit reduction for 2022. Department of Labor, as of November 10, 2022, announced that (California, Connecticut, Illinois, New York and the Virgin Islands) have had outstanding Title XII advances on January 1 for two consecutive years (20), and on November 10, 2022. Even with these mitigation efforts, SUI tax rates increased, on average, from 1.72% in 2020 to 1.89% in 2021 to 2.30% in 2022.¹ Now the question becomes, what is the outlook for 2023 SUI tax rates? FUTA Credit Reductions - 2022īefore addressing SUI tax rates, FUTA tax rates and FUTA credit reductions are top of mind for employers as well. Many states acted quickly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to help mitigate sizable increases in 2021 SUI tax rates. Last updated: (changes since last update on Mawill begin with **NEW**)Ĭheck out the newest information in the Outlook for State Unemployment Insurance (SUI) Tax Rates in 2024 and Beyond
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